Evidence Shows Roy Moore Will Easily Win Special U.S. Senate Election
Yes, we’re calling it. Roy Moore will win the upcoming special U.S. senate election to be held on December 12. Despite the ups, the downs, and all the allegations in between, we’re confident that Moore will not only pull away from Democratic challenger Doug Jones, but will also win quite handily.
We derive a sizable proportion of this conclusion from data provided from upstart polling firm Change Research. They describe themselves as “like-minded leaders from the world of startups, data science, politics, and social change to re-imagine both the techniques and the uses of public opinion polling.”
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They are also new kids on the block, having only incorporated as a Public Benefit Corporation in the summer of 2017. As such, Change Research doesn’t own an established track record of validated polling methodology. (Source: About Change Research, Change Research.)
With that said, the actual data presented by Change Research appears quite credible and thorough.
Polling conducted on November 26–27 consisted of 1,868 self-reported registered Alabama voters. Full post-stratification, or the method for adjusting the sampling weights to account for underrepresented population groups, was conducted. This was based on age, gender, ethnicity, education, and self-reported 2016 presidential votes, with additional weighting based on likely voter turnout. The margin of error is about 2.3%—well within the standards of establishment polling firms.
Change Research also used something called “Bias Correct technology,” which is a patent-pending formula. While we can’t vouch for its validity, we’re sure the algorithm is well thought out.
What the Polling Shows
Change Research’s latest poll paints a very bullish picture in regards to Moore. In particular, three specific data points indicate that not only has the worst of the Moore’s sexual misconduct scandal passed, but also that he’s fully recovered. It might be among the fastest post-scandal recoveries in modern U.S. politics.
Voter Turnout
In mid-November, only 82% of Republicans who said they voted for Trump planned to “definitely” vote on December 12. By November 26-27, that number rose to 88%. Planned write-in voting also contracted, from 10% down to seven percent during that period. (Moore Opens Up 49–44 Lead in Alabama; Just 9% of Trump Voters Believe Allegations Against Moore, Medium, November 28, 2017.)
Additionally, Moore actually gained support among his Republican base. In mid-November, Moore’s edge was 91–5 with likely Republican voters; now, the lead has widened to 93–4. This is the ultimate proof that voters simply are buying the allegations—at all.
The positive uptick in these data points could just be statistical noise. But when all the metrics move in the same direction, the evidence becomes stronger. Most importantly, there’s no evidence of cracking support, despite the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) pulling funding and field support from the campaign. Moore’s holding strong despite the setbacks. That’s ultra bullish.
Do You Believe Any of the Allegations Are True?
That was one important question Change Research posed to its pool of likely voters. Important because the Roy Moore election bid rests primarily on whether voters trust the allegations.
The numbers again show the presence of widespread voter apathy.
| Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | |
| Moore primary voters | 3 | 85 | 6 | 70 | 2 | 78 |
| Strange primary voters | 18 | 39 | 36 | 25 | 33 | 32 |
| Other GOP primary voters | 20 | 39 | 29 | 34 | 27 | 40 |
| Democratic primary voters | 74 | 3 | 92 | 1 | 94 | 1 |
All demographic figures are bullish, except for Democratic primary voters, who aren’t voting for Moore anyway. In fact, the data shows new lows in allegation believability with Moore voters. The scandal only partially survives in the minds of Luther Strange and “other” primary voters.
The establishment needed much more than this to stop Roy Moore. If it hasn’t happened by now, it’s doubtful it will at all.
Who Do You Plan to Vote for in the Election on December 12?
| Moore 11/9-11 | Jones 11/9-11 | Moore 11/15-16 | Jones 11/15-16 | Moore 11/26/27 | Jones 11/26-27 | |
| Moore primary voters | 93 | 5 | 91 | 5 | 93 | 4 |
| Strange primary voters | 60 | 25 | 49 | 26 | 53 | 30 |
| Other GOP primary voters | 49 | 30 | 58 | 20 | 59 | 24 |
| Democratic primary voters | 0 | 98 | 0 | 98 | 0 | 99 |
The ultimate confirmation of the numbers above. Not only has Moore’s support held strong, but the numbers of Strange voters is increasing, as is the number of “other” GOP primary voters.
That Moore is receiving rapidly increasing support from those who did not support him in the Senate primary is a great sign. It means his non-core supporters are galvanizing behind him, even though Moore wasn’t their first choice.
People are stubborn. Often times, when their candidate of choice loses, they will vote for the alternative regardless of reason. If a national sexual misconduct scandal can’t shave more than a few basis points of support, it’s all over. The allegations are proving to be a big nothingburger.
Our Verdict
Although lacking an established polling track record, the Change Research data should have the Moore campaign brimming with confidence. The polling contains strong methodology, sufficient sample size, and three successive apples-to-apples polls, making extrapolating comparisons easy. This isn’t some flunky, partisan effort.
In the end, the facts of Change Research’s third poll are undeniable. Despite the sexual misconduct allegations surfacing against Moore on November 9, the data show that Moore has completely erased the three-point lead Jones had opened up in mid-November. Not only that, but the lead’s just as large as it was just on November 9. In political terms, it’s like the scandal never happened in the public’s eyes.
Forget any biased establishment Roy Moore poll that may turn up between now and December 11. Barring any major evidential new allegations thrown his way between now and election day, Roy Moore’s win is a done deal. We’re confident of that.
Roy Moore Election Prediction: Moore wins by 8-12% over Democratic challenger Doug Jones.
Thus, our biggest question isn’t about the election outcome itself, but rather, what is the Republican establishment’s “Plan B” on Capitol Hill?
