Did North Korea Launch a Ballistic Missile?
North Korea had dropped from the world’s news headlines. Thus, Supreme Leader and noted bon vivant Kim Jong-un decided to offer his people another unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH) spectacle to get a few likes on Facebook. UDMH is the fuel that analysts suspect powers North Korea’s missiles. Kim can be pleased with himself; not only did North Korea launch a ballistic missile, but the missile reached a record altitude by Democratic People’s standards.
But analysts, whose job it is to know such things, suspect that North Korea imports UDMH or its components from China, perhaps. This fuel allows North Korea to achieve greater power than if it used more commonly available oil and gas. It just so happens that those are subjected to sanctions. So, if the Americans want to stop Kim from pursuing his rocketry hobby, they might do worse than to block the supply of UDMH or the ingredients to prepare it. (Source: “The Rare, Potent Fuel Powering North Korea’s Weapons,” The New York Times, September 17, 2017.)
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The height, or maximum altitude, of North Korea’s latest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was such that many at the Pentagon must have wondered: Can a North Korea missile reach us? Defense Secretary James Mattis thinks it can. He said that the North Korean missile reached the highest point, or apogee, since Pyongyang started to keep a tab. The key takeaway is that North Korea’s missiles are evolving in technology and could soon reach anywhere on earth. (Source: “Mattis: North Korea missile launch was highest ever,” The Hill, November 28, 2017.)
The North Korean missile’s path is similar to other recent launches, which typically land off the Japanese island of Hokkaido. But it is the first missile launch since the one that landed near Japan in September. It’s also the first since Trump issued his latest “ultimatum” on November 20: Trump added North Korea to the list of States that are Sponsors of International Terrorism. Kim’s response seems to be a rebuff to that dubious honor.
Can a North Korean Missile Reach Us?
It’s the longest interval between missile tests this year and it suggests that the North Koreans may, in fact, have been preparing a technology upgrade all this time. That they did so, as the whole world kept watch, is both surprising and scary. It shows—as if any more evidence were needed—that no matter how strong the threat or application of sanctions might be, Pyongyang manages to find a way to continue advancing their technology with every launch. But there’s no evidence that any North Korean missile can reach us.
Apart from the missile, North Korea also launched a real zinger. The Korean Central News Agency said the missile can carry a “super large warhead” capable of striking the U.S. mainland. (Source: “North Korea Claims New Missile Makes It A Nuclear Power,” NPR, November 29, 2017.)
But that’s a claim out of orbit. Regardless of how far or how high Pyongyang’s ICBM has reached, there’s no evidence that Kim Jong-un has access to nuclear warheads capable of being fitted to its missiles. Then there are more technical problems to resolve, from accuracy to range to the rocket’s ability to survive launch and re-entry.
A missile involves two components: the atomic explosive/warhead and the missile that delivers the former to its destination. Both need to be tested separately. Explosive tests are conducted underground in their territory. The missiles that fly toward Japan are empty. One of the hardest aspects is miniaturizing the warhead to the point where it’s light enough to allow for the desired range.
Still, North Korea is provoking the U.S. Something will have to be done. Kim’s strategy is to bluff that he has a much better hand, declaring North Korea a “nuclear power.” The North Korean dictator wants to protect his rule from any U.S. attempts at regime change. Kim has seen what has happened to more than one Middle Eastern or North African dictator in the past few years and does not want the same fate.
