Roy Moore Campaign Gets a Major Boost for the Home Stretch Lombardi Letter 2018-02-16 07:29:00 roy moore campaign Beverley Young Nelson's yearbook doug jones gloria allred RNC mitch mcconnell Roy Moore's campaign for a U.S. Senate seat has gotten a boost. The Republican National Committee has decided to recommit money for his campaign. News,U.S. Politics

Roy Moore Campaign Gets a Major Boost for the Home Stretch

U.S. Politics - By Benjamin A. Smith |
roy moore

Mark Wilson/Staff/Getty Images

RNC to Reinforce Roy Moore Campaign by Recommitting Financial Support

Thing are looking up in Roy Moore’s quest for a U.S. Senate seat. The Republican National Committee (RNC) has decided to recommit resources by injecting money into Moore’s election campaign. This comes barely three weeks after the RNC pulled all funding for the Roy Moore campaign, citing multiple allegations of sexual misconduct.

The biggest impact will be on the funding side. The RNC’s re-commitment to the Moore campaign will free up additional funding for outreach programs and advertising, both of which could positively impact voter turnout. (Source: “Roy Moore Gets Trump Endorsement and R.N.C. Funding for Senate Race,” The New York Times, December 4, 2017)


Not that Moore really needs it.

Only two-and-a-half weeks ago, Moore’s campaign chair, Bill Armistead, indicated that funding had “skyrocketed” since Moore’s scandal hit the news. Amazingly, another source corroborated that account, saying that the campaign raised more money in six days in mid-November than they had raised since September, when Moore defeated Luther Strange in the U.S. Senate republican primary.  (Source: “Report: Roy Moore Fundraising Surges Since Attacks,”Breitbart, November 17, 2017.)

The net effect? Multiple sexual misconduct allegations against Moore have actually boosted fundraising efforts among grassroots supporters.

Besides the funding, the RNC’s political support is also important because it saps Democratic challenger Doug Jones of the free advertising that the RNC-member attacks against Moore were giving him. For example, Mitch McConnell is now calling for Alabamans to decide Moore’s fate, instead of urging Moore to withdraw, only three weeks prior. The cascade of partisan attacks on Moore should now come to a trickle, providing Jones with less ammunition to campaign off of.

Ultimately, with a bigger war chest and the 800-pound Republican Party gorilla off his back, Moore’s election chances just got that much better.

Democratic Challenger Is in Big Trouble

Things are not going so well for Doug Jones; the last thing he needed was another dagger, which is exactly what the RNC has delivered.

Besides the outlier Washington Post (WP) poll showing Jones above Moore by three percent, most other polls have Moore solidly up by mid-to-high single-digits. Keep in mind, WP only sampled 739 likely voters. There’s serious question about poll skew as well. Only seven percent more Republicans were polled, despite the fact Alabama voted for Trump 62%-34% in the 2016 presidential election. (Source: “Alabama race is neck and neck, with voters divided over Roy Moore allegations, poll finds,” The Washington Post, December 2.)

Federal and state races are not apples-to-apples comparisons to be sure, but it’s in the ballpark.

Jones also faces another big quandary: he has no defining catalyst to propel him forward. Any residual effect to the sexual misconduct scandal is basically gone. A full 78% of Republican voters don’t believe the allegations against Moore, while Moore’s base support has actually increased.

Jones is peddling a decidedly progressive platform, which doesn’t play well with rural voters and those in outlying suburbs. Jones is vociferously anti-Trump in a state that provided Trump a massive mandate in 2016. Trump continued support will continue to buoy Moore until election day.

There’s simply no compelling reason for Alabamans to vote Jones in. Democratic support for Jones is in the high-ninety percentile. There’s nowhere else it can go. Jones needed a large swath of Moore supporters and undecideds to cross over. Absent of that, Jones doesn’t have anywhere he can pick up more votes.  So any further progressive pandering is just preaching to the choir.

Clearly that hasn’t happened. The last remaining chance for “crossovers” died when Gloria Allred refused to let third-party assessors verify the authenticity of Beverley Young Nelson’s yearbook.

My Verdict

The injection of RNC support into the Roy Moore campaign is the final nail in the coffin for Doug Jones’ senate run. I don’t believe Moore needs RNC support to win anyway, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. I continue to predict that Roy Moore will win by a 8%–12% margin on December 12, and nothing I’ve seen alters that assessment. Establishment republicans seem to recognize that fact, and are likely planning subversion through the House Ethics Committee as a Plan ‘B’.

The Roy Moore saga still has lots of room to run on Capitol Hill.

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