New Discipline Suggests Economic Collapse and the End of Civilization are Coming in 2020!
It sounds incredible, but it has too much logic behind it to ignore. There’s a new discipline that uses math to predict the rise and fall of civilizations. The new field on inquiry is called “cliodynamics.” The term is so new that spellcheck in “Microsoft Word” doesn’t recognize it. However, you should pay attention; it points to imminent economic collapse. Indeed, its simple equation suggests humanity will collapse shortly.
Peter Turchin, professor of Ecology and Mathematics from the University of Connecticut, says his model suggests economic collapse could occur in the 2020s. Turchin says that math can be used to predict and explain human behavior. In other words, math is a tool that explains history. In a sense, Turchin’s model works on the basis that “history repeats itself.” (Source: “A mathematician looked at when society is likely to collapse and the answer is sooner than you’d think,” The Independent, January 6, 2017.)
The new discipline of cliodynamics studies long-term historical-social processes through a mathematical model. Turchin cites the recent presidential election in the United States as an indicator of his “end of civilization” forecast. While Turchin denies that cliodynamics can predict exactly what happens and when, rising instability offers valuable hints.
Cliodynamics examines the signs of economic collapse and related malaises. However, this theory, says Turchin, does not predict events; rather, it predicts trends. Humanity is not doomed yet, as Turchin assures that his predictions can still help humanity escape a major economic collapse and a dark destiny.
The Research Suggests Violence Will Rise Considerably in 2020
Turchin says his research theorizes a rise in violence in the United States. The new discipline owes its name to Clio, the Greek goddess of history. It suggests that internal violence erupts roughly every 50 years. In 1870, there was the Civil War, linked to social, economic, and racial causes. Fifty years later, in 1920, the U.S. witnessed violent clashes, risking a revolution.
Finally, in 1970, there were violent clashes amid demands for civil rights by African-Americans and students, all in the context of the Vietnam War. Turchin attributes the sparks of violence to generational developments.
For example, the children of parents who participated or witnessed violence choose to avoid social activism. In turn, their children, “bored” by the idleness, resume the fight against perceived injustices.
When the population increases and the supply of labor exceeds demand, increasing struggles for political power spread corruption, and it leads to political instability and social and economic collapse. Considering the current dynamics, it would seem, according to Turchin’s model, that we are due.
Turchin also cites income inequality and something he calls “elite overproduction” as evidence of the coming societal collapse. The latter is just a fancier way of describing increasing inequality and how it benefits only the wealthiest—the “one percent.” Turchin sees Trump’s presidency as a potential magnifier of this trend.